全膝关节置换术后深静脉血栓预测模型的建立
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1.安徽医科大学附属安徽省立医院;2.中国科学技术大学附属第一医院(安徽省立医院);3.安徽医科大学第一附属医院

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安徽省自然科学基金(2108085QH319)


Establishment of a prediction model for deep vein thrombosis after total knee arthroplasty
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1.Anhui Provincial Hospital affiliated to Anhui Medical University;2.The first affiliated hospital of USTC(Anhui Provincial Hospital);3.The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University

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the Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province(2108085QH319)

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    摘要:

    【目的】:构建基于Logistic回归和XGBoost算法的全膝关节置换术(TKA)围手术期深静脉血栓(DVT)形成风险的预测模型。【方法】:回顾性选取2017年12月至2021年10月于中国科学技术大学附属第一医院骨科接受TKA手术治疗的3711例患者,构建Logistic回归和XGBoost算法预测模型,筛选围手术期出现DVT的预测因素,并比较两者的预测效能。【结果】:Logistic回归模型显示术前等待时间、术后住院时间、是否使用低分子肝素、是否使用XA因子抑制剂、是否术后早期抗凝等因素是TKA手术患者围手术期DVT事件的预测因素(P<0.05)。XGBoost模型显示年龄、术后住院时间、术后D-二聚体、血清尿素氮/肌酐比值、使用低分子肝素是重要的特征向量。两者的受试者工作特征曲线下面积分别为0.709和0.840。【结论】:XGBoost模型对于TKA围手术期DVT事件具有良好的预测能力,患者年龄、术后住院时间、术后D-二聚体、血清尿素氮/肌酐比值、使用低分子肝素是潜在的重要预测指标。

    Abstract:

    [Objective]: To construct predictive models for perioperative deep vein thrombosis (DVT) risk in total knee arthroplasty (TKA) based on Logistic regression and XGBoost algorithm respectively. [Methods]: From December 2017 to October 2021, 3711 patients who underwent TKA surgery in the Department of Orthopedics, The First Affiliated Hospital of the University of Science and Technology of China were retrospectively enrolled. The logistic regression and XGBoost algorithm prediction models were constructed. Predictors and predictive power of the two were compared. [Results]:A total of 3711 patients were included in the study, including 889 in the DVT group and 2822 in the non-DVT group.Logistic regression model showed prolonged postoperative hospital stay (OR=1.393, P<0.001), advanced age (OR=1.214, P<0.001), preoperative D-dimer (OR=1.058, P=0.008), postoperative blood Increased phosphorus (OR=1.160, P =0.005) and increased postoperative urea nitrogen-to-creatinine ratio (OR=1.576, P <0.001) were risk factors for DVT events; prolonged preoperative preparation time (OR=0.854, P= 0.008) and increased preoperative prothrombin activity (OR=0.817, P=0.028) were protective factors for DVT events.Logistic regression model showed that preoperative waiting time, postoperative hospital stay, low molecular weight heparin use, Factor Xa inhibitor use, early anticoagulation interventionet al. were the predictors of perioperative DVT events in patients with TKA surgery (P<0.05). The XGBoost model showed that age, postoperative hospital stay, postoperative D-dimer, serum urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio, and use of low molecular weight heparin were important predictive feature vectors. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the two were 0.709 and 0.840, respectively.[Conclusion]: The XGBoost model has good predictive ability for DVT events in the perioperative period of TKA. Patient age, postoperative hospital stay, postoperative D-dimer, serum urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio, and use of low molecular weight heparin are potential important predictors.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-04-29
  • 最后修改日期:2022-07-01
  • 录用日期:2022-10-09
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