老年髋部骨折围术期下肢深静脉血栓形成的危险因素分析
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北京市石景山医院

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Analysis of risk factors of perioperative lower limb deep vein thrombosis in elderly patients with hip fracture
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1.Beijing Shijingshan Hospital;2.Beijing Shijingshan hospital

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    摘要:

    [目的] 分析老年髋部骨折围手术期下肢DVT的危险因素,建立预测模型,指导临床预判DVT发生风险。[方法] 回顾性分析我院2015年8月-2021年9月收治的老年髋部骨折共384例患者临床资料。分为DVT组和非DVT组,采用单因素和多因素分析,得出下肢DVT的危险因素。建立预测模型,对模型效能进行评定。[结果] 384例患者中,围术期DVT发生率67例(17.4% 67/384),术前33例(8.6% 33/384),术后34例(8.9% 34/384),术前至术后不变10例(14.9% 10/67),加重37例(55.2% 37/67),减轻20例(29.9% 20/67)。单项因素比较,与非DVT组相比,DVT组患者术前等待时间更长、输血比例及合并骨折占比更高、手术时间更长、术中出血量更多、APTT更长,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。多因素二元逻辑回归分析显示:术前等待时间长(OR=1.110,CI=1.050~1.173)、围术期输血(OR=0.390,CI=0.221~0.688)、合并≥3种内科疾病(OR=0.532,CI=0.300~0.944)是围手术期下肢DVT发生的独立危险因素。基于逻辑回归结果所得的下肢DVT预测方程准确度为82.3%,临界值为0.319,敏感度为71.6%,特异度为60.3%;ROC曲线下面积为0.705。[结论] 术前等待时间长、围术期输血、合并≥3种内科疾病是围手术期下肢DVT发生的独立危险因素。DVT预测模型有助于临床判断血栓发生风险并提前预防。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] To analyze the risk factors of perioperative lower limb DVT in elderly hip fractures, establish a prediction model, and guide clinical prediction of the risk of DVT. [Methods] A retrospective review of the clinical data of 384 elderly patients with hip fractures admitted to our hospital from August 2015 to September 2021. Divided into DVT group and non-DVT group, single factor and multivariate analysis were used to obtain the risk factors of lower limb DVT. Establish a predictive model and evaluate the effectiveness of the model. [Results] Among the 384 patients, the perioperative rate was 67 (17.4% 67/384), 33 cases (8.6%) before operation, 34 cases (8.9%) after operation, and 10 cases remained unchanged before operation to after operation. (14.9%), 37 cases (55.2%) were aggravated, and 20 cases (29.9%) were relieved. Compared with the non-DVT group, compared with the non-DVT group, the patients in the DVT group had a longer waiting time before surgery, a higher proportion of blood transfusion and combined fractures, a longer operation time, more intraoperative blood loss, and a longer APTT. The differences were statistically significant. Academic significance (P<0.05). Multivariate binary logistic regression analysis showed: long preoperative waiting time (OR=1.110, CI=1.050~1.173), perioperative blood transfusion (OR=0.390, CI=0.221~0.688), combined with ≥3 medical diseases (OR =0.532, CI=0.300~0.944) is an independent risk factor for DVT of lower limbs during perioperative period. Based on the logistic regression results, the accuracy of the lower limb DVT prediction equation was 82.3%, the critical value was 0.319, the sensitivity was 71.6%, and the specificity was 60.3%; the area under the ROC curve was 0.705. [Conclusion] Long waiting time before operation, perioperative blood transfusion, combined with ≥3 kinds of medical diseases are independent risk factors for perioperative lower limb DVT. The DVT prediction model is helpful to clinically judge the risk of thrombosis and prevent it in advance.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-09-25
  • 最后修改日期:2022-06-25
  • 录用日期:2022-10-09
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