老年髋关节骨折患者术后发生谵妄风险的列线图预测模型分析
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驻马店市中心医院关节外科

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Analysis of nomogram prediction model for postoperative delirium risk in elderly patients with hip fracture
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Joint Surgery, Zhumadian Central Hospital, Zhumadian, Henan 463000,China

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    摘要:

    【摘要】目的:基于老年髋关节骨折患者术后发生谵妄风险的影响因素分析,建立并验证列线图预测模型,旨在指导临床防治。方法:选取2015年8月至2019年8月于我院行手术治疗的老年髋关节骨折患者308例为研究对象,通过单因素分析及多因素Logistic回归分析,分析影响手术后发生谵妄风险的独立危险因素,在此基础上根据筛选出的变量建立列线图预测模型。结果:经单因素分析及多因素Logistic回归分析,结果提示年龄、2型糖尿病、ASA分级、全身麻醉及手术时间是引发术后谵妄的独立危险因素(P<0.05,OR>1);将以上5个变量用于列线图的构建,最终构建模型以用于患者个体化的预后预测。Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验提示该模型的拟合情况较好。结论:本研究建立的老年髋关节骨折患者术后发生谵妄风险的列线图预测模型,可以根据多因素分析结果中有意义的变量,较为准确的预测患者的预后情况,临床应用前景较好。

    Abstract:

    [Abstract] Objective: Based on the analysis of factors affecting the risk of postoperative delirium in elderly patients with hip fractures, to establish and verify a nomogram prediction model to guide clinical prevention and treatment. Methods: A total of 308 elderly hip fracture patients who underwent surgical treatment in our hospital from August 2015 to August 2019 were selected as the research objects. Through univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis, the independent factors affecting the risk of postoperative delirium were analyzed. Risk factors, on this basis, establish a nomogram prediction model based on the selected variables. Results: After univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis, the results suggest that age, type 2 diabetes, ASA classification, general anesthesia, and operation time are independent risk factors for postoperative delirium (P<0.05, OR>1); Five variables are used for the construction of nomogram, and finally the model is constructed for the individualized prognosis prediction of patients. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test indicates that the model fits well. Conclusion: The nomogram prediction model of postoperative delirium risk in elderly patients with hip fracture established in this study can accurately predict the prognosis of patients based on meaningful variables in the results of multivariate analysis, and has a good clinical application prospect.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-09-22
  • 最后修改日期:2020-12-19
  • 录用日期:2020-12-28
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