老年股骨转子间骨折围术期输血的危险因素分析及预测模型的建立
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北京市石景山医院

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Risk factors analysis and prediction model of perioperative blood transfusion for elderly femoral intertrochanteric fractures
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Shijingshan Teaching Hospital, Capital Medical University

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    摘要:

    目的 分析老年股骨转子间骨折围手术期输血的危险因素,并建立logistic回归预测模型,指导临床预判输血风险。方法 采用回顾性病例对照研究分析2015年8月-2020年1月收治的174例(年龄≥60岁)股骨转子间骨折并手术治疗患者临床资料,其中男54例,女120例,年龄80.5±8.4岁。将患者分为输血组和未输血组,采用单因素和多因素分析,得出输血的独立危险因素。比较两组围术期并发症发生率差异。建立logistic回归预测模型,最终应用Hosmer and Lemeshow检验对预测模型的拟合优度进行测验,用ROC曲线下面积对预测模型效能进行评定。结果 单因素分析结果显示,两组在年龄、骨折类型、美国麻醉医师协会(ASA)分级、手术时长、术中出血量、是否扩髓、入院时血红蛋白(Hb)、红细胞压积(HCT)、肌酐(Cr)等方面差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),多因素分析结果显示,高龄(OR=1.066,CI=1.011~1.124)、术中出血多(OR=1.007,CI=1.003~1.011)、入院时低血红蛋白(OR=0.924,CI=0.899~0.950)、扩髓(OR=5.147,CI=1.472~17.994)是围手术期输血的独立危险因素。输血组住院期间肺炎发生率高于未输血组并且差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。根据logistic回归分析得出预测模型P=1/1+exp-(1.828+0.64*年龄+0.007*术中出血量+1.638*扩髓-0.079Hb), 预测模型系数的全局性Omnibus 检验:χ2=75.985,P<0.001;Hosmer and Lemeshow检验:χ2=10.975,P=0.203。回归模型预测的准确度为79.3%,临界值为0.595,敏感度为78.5%,特异度为81.1%;ROC曲线下面积为0.857,95%CI(0.801~0.912).结论 高龄、术中出血多、扩髓、入院时低血红蛋白是老年股骨转子间骨折围术期输血的独立危险因素,所建立的预测模型有一定风险评估价值,可应用于临床。

    Abstract:

    Objective To analyze the risk factors of perioperative blood transfusion in elderly femoral intertrochanteric fractures, and establish a logistic regression prediction model to guide the clinical prediction of blood transfusion risk. Methods A retrospective case-control study was used to analyze the clinical data of 174 patients (age 60 years or older) treated with intertrochanteric fractures treated from August 2015 to January 2020, including 54 males and 120 females, age 80.5 ± 8.4 years old. The patients were divided into transfusion group and non-transfusion group, and the independent risk factors of blood transfusion were obtained by univariate and multivariate analysis. The perioperative complications were compared between the two groups. A logistic regression prediction model was established, and finally the Hosmer and Lemeshow test was used to test the goodness of fit of the prediction model, and the area under the ROC curve was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the prediction model. Results The univariate analysis showed that the two groups were different in age, fracture type, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, length of operation, intraoperative blood loss, whether to expand the medulla, hemoglobin (Hb), hematocrit (HCT), The differences in creatinine (Cr) and other aspects were statistically significant (P <0.05). The results of multivariate analysis showed that the elderly (OR = 1.066, CI = 1.011 ~ 1.124) and more intraoperative bleeding (OR = 1.007, CI = 1.003 ~ 1.011) ), Low hemoglobin (OR = 0.924, CI = 0.899 ~ 0.950), and enlarged medulla (OR = 5.147, CI = 1.472 ~ 17.994) were independent risk factors for perioperative blood transfusion during admission. The incidence of pneumonia during the hospitalization period was higher in the transfusion group than in the non-transfusion group, and the difference was statistically significant (P <0.05). According to logistic regression analysis, the prediction model P = 1/1 + exp- (1.828 + 0.64 * age + 0.007 * intraoperative blood loss + 1.638 * medulling-0.079Hb), global Omnibus test for predicting model coefficients: χ2 = 75.985, P <0.001; Hosmer and Lemeshow test: χ2 = 10.975, P = 0.203. The accuracy of the regression model prediction was 79.3%, the critical value was 0.595, the sensitivity was 78.5%, and the specificity was 81.1%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.857 and 95% CI (0.801 ~ 0.912). Conclusions The elderly and the intraoperative bleeding are more , Hemodialysis, and hemoglobin at the time of admission are independent risk factors for perioperative blood transfusion in elderly femoral intertrochanteric fractures, and the prediction model established has certain risk assessment value and can be applied to the clinic.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-03-15
  • 最后修改日期:2020-07-01
  • 录用日期:2020-09-03
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